Former President Donald Trump told Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson that failing to secure a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would be “bad news for this world.”
“So many people are dying,” Trump said. “But I think he’s going to agree. I really do. I think I know him pretty well, and I think he’s going to agree.”
Russian foreign policy expert Mark N. Katz noted that Trump views the ongoing war as harmful not just to Ukraine, but also to Russia and Europe.
“I don't think he was commenting on how the U.S. would respond,” said Katz, a professor emeritus at George Mason University. He explained that Trump sees the war as counterproductive and believes ending it could help Russia restore normal relations and see sanctions lifted.
Katz added that a ceasefire could also create opportunities for U.S. investment in Russia. “From Trump's deal-making perspective, it just makes sense,” he said. However, he noted that Trump cannot force American companies to invest in Russia, and many have had negative experiences there in the past.
Trump is set to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday as he pushes for an end to the war.
Ukraine has already agreed to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire, putting pressure on Putin to respond. The breakthrough came during recent discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in Saudi Arabia. As part of the agreement, the U.S. will resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
The shift followed a tense White House meeting last month between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump told Attkisson that ending the war would save lives and reduce spending, pointing out that the U.S. has committed “massive amounts of money” to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
Trump claimed the U.S. has spent $350 billion on Ukraine— a figure higher than reported by other sources. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. has pledged $175 billion through congressional bills, with a significant portion of those funds being spent domestically to manufacture weapons for Ukraine and replenish American stockpiles.
Although the U.S. remains Ukraine’s largest donor, more than a dozen European nations have contributed a larger share of their economic output.
When asked about his campaign pledge to end the war in 24 hours, Trump admitted, “Well, I was being a little bit sarcastic. What I really mean is I’d like to get it settled.”
Katz suggested Trump likely knew the promise was unrealistic. “I’m pretty sure he knew during the campaign that he wasn’t going to end it in 24 hours,” he said. “I think he was signaling that he would try to resolve it quickly.”
Still, getting Putin to agree won’t be easy.
“Putin has indicated that he doesn’t want just a ceasefire,” Katz said. “He wants what he sees as the root causes addressed. That means a ceasefire plus concessions from Ukraine and the West.”
Putin is likely to demand limits on Western military aid to Ukraine, Katz noted. Meanwhile, France and Britain have discussed sending troops to Ukraine to provide security guarantees, but they are unlikely to proceed without U.S. backing.
Another potential bargaining chip could involve North Korean troops, who have been assisting Russia in its fight against Ukraine. Their mission in Russia’s Kursk region is nearly complete, so Putin may be open to withdrawing them in exchange for concessions.
Ultimately, Putin is expected to seek control over additional Ukrainian territory. Russia currently occupies about 44,000 square miles of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donbas seized before 2022. Since the full-scale invasion, Russia has captured another 27,000 square miles.
A key sticking point remains NATO. Putin wants guarantees that Ukraine will never join the alliance, but Katz called that an “untenable demand.” He emphasized that NATO membership is a decision made between the alliance and candidate countries, not dictated by Russia.
Despite his demands, Putin is unlikely to completely dismiss Trump’s overtures.
“Putin doesn’t want to burn bridges with Trump, so he’ll likely entertain ceasefire talks,” Katz said. However, he doesn’t expect Putin to commit to anything quickly.
If Putin refuses a ceasefire, Trump will face a difficult choice: increase pressure through more sanctions or boost military support for Ukraine.
Katz doubts additional sanctions will change Russia’s behavior and believes Trump is reluctant to deepen U.S. involvement.
“Putin might see it as a way to call Trump’s bluff,” Katz said. He may also try to force Ukraine into choosing between an unfavorable peace deal or risking a strained relationship with Trump.
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