**Three Reasons Trump's Plan to Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China Could Backfire *****An Opinion***

 

Trump’s gambit to trade Ukraine for a Russia-China split could backfire spectacularly, further cementing the most powerful anti-Western alliance since the Cold War.

In an October 31, 2024, interview with right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson, President Donald Trump claimed that the United States, under Joe Biden, had mistakenly pushed China and Russia closer together. Breaking up their alliance, he asserted, would be a priority of his administration. “I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too,” Trump said.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has been eager to negotiate with Russia in hopes of quickly ending the war in Ukraine. One interpretation of this policy is that it aligns with his belief that Russia and China should be divided. After a recent call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump told Fox News: “As a student of history, which I am – and I’ve watched it all – the first thing you learn is you don’t want Russia and China to get together.”

Trump is alluding to the Nixon-era strategy in which the U.S. sought to align with China to counterbalance the Soviet Union, fostering a divide between the two communist powers. However, if breaking up the Moscow-Beijing partnership is indeed his goal, his vision is both naive and shortsighted.

A Changing Geopolitical Landscape

While Russia and China have had conflicts of interest in the past, today’s geopolitical landscape is vastly different from the Cold War era. Their relationship has grown closer since the Soviet Union’s collapse, with both nations sharing strategic goals—chief among them, challenging the Western-led liberal order.

Both powers have adopted increasingly assertive military postures: China in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, and Russia in former Soviet satellite states, including Ukraine. The West’s unified stance against their actions has only strengthened their partnership.

A “Friendship Without Limits”

In February 2022, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a “friendship without limits,” signaling their shared opposition to the West. Since then, China has become Russia’s most important economic partner. In 2024, bilateral trade between the two nations reached a record $237 billion, with Russia heavily dependent on China for oil and gas exports.

This economic interdependence gives China substantial leverage over Russia, making any U.S. attempt to pry Moscow away from Beijing highly unrealistic. However, their relationship is not without friction. Russia’s strategic ties with India, for example, are a source of concern for China. Trump could attempt to exploit these divisions, but it is unclear whether he has the diplomatic finesse to do so.

Putin Knows Where His Interests Lie

Putin understands that, even with Trump in office, the deep-seated Western consensus against Russia will remain. The economic sanctions regime, while imperfect, is unlikely to be lifted entirely. Despite Trump’s apparent affinity for Putin, his first-term policies were often harsher on Russia than those of Barack Obama or Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, China views Trump’s negotiations with Russia over Ukraine as a sign of American weakness. While some figures in Trump’s administration, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, take a hawkish stance toward China, Trump himself has sent mixed signals. He has imposed new tariffs on China in a renewed trade war but has also entertained the possibility of a meeting with Xi Jinping.

China recognizes Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which prioritizes short-term gains over long-term strategic commitments. This raises doubts about whether the U.S. under Trump would be willing to bear the high costs of defending Taiwan. Unlike his predecessor, Trump has declined to explicitly commit to defending the self-governing island, which Beijing claims as its own.

China’s Economic Resilience

China has learned from Russia’s experience in Ukraine that the U.S.-led sanctions regime has its limits. Despite sweeping Western sanctions, Russia has remained economically afloat, aided by allies like China and North Korea. China, with its much larger and more globally integrated economy, is even better positioned to withstand Western economic pressure.

As the U.S. and its allies have sought to decouple from China in recent years, Beijing has adapted by emphasizing domestic consumption and enhancing self-sufficiency in key industries.

Trump’s Strategy Could Backfire

Trump’s plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war by favoring Russia in hopes of luring it into an anti-China coalition is likely to fail. While Russia may have concerns about China’s growing power, its strategic alignment with Beijing—and deep economic reliance on Chinese markets—make a U.S.-led effort to split them improbable.

Moreover, Trump’s approach could backfire by weakening Western unity. His transactional foreign policy, along with his support for right-wing movements in Europe, may strain relations with key European allies and erode trust in American security commitments. This, in turn, could embolden China, giving it greater room to maneuver on critical issues like Taiwan.

Rather than driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, Trump’s strategy could instead fracture an already fragile Western coalition.