As French President Emmanuel Macron hosts another Ukraine-centric summit in Paris on March 27, a crucial question lingers: Can Europe, with France as one of its leaders, sustain embattled Kyiv if the U.S. withdraws its support?
Addressing the nation on March 5, Macron underscored the urgency of preparing for Russian threats without reliance on the U.S.
"Faced with this world of danger, remaining a spectator would be madness," Macron stated.
On March 26, he announced a new 2-billion-euro ($2.1 billion) military aid package for Ukraine, emphasizing the necessity of continued support to bolster Kyiv’s resistance. Standing alongside President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Elysee Palace, Macron detailed the package, which includes anti-tank missiles, air defense systems, Mirage fighter jet missiles, armored vehicles, ammunition, and other critical supplies.
Macron has persistently worked to position France at the forefront of European defense. However, his diplomatic efforts have yet to yield a concrete European strategy on rearmament, peacekeeping in Ukraine, or a unified stance toward an increasingly assertive U.S.
Macron's Push for an Independent Europe
In recent weeks, Macron has intensified efforts to fortify Ukraine’s support network and rebuild Europe’s defense, which remains heavily dependent on Washington. France recognizes the need to engage non-EU partners to develop a collective European defense approach, according to Antonio Missiroli, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges.
Notably, France has shifted its stance on cooperation with the U.K., Europe’s only other nuclear power. "This is a Franco-British initiative aimed at providing security guarantees to Ukraine through troop deployment once a peace deal is reached," French officials said. These diplomatic moves appear effective, with 31 countries expected to participate in a "coalition of the willing" meeting in Paris.
While France anticipates a potential U.S. disengagement, it simultaneously works to prevent it, leveraging Macron’s relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.
"I believe that Emmanuel agrees with me on many important issues," Trump stated during Macron’s Washington visit in February, which was widely regarded as a diplomatic success.
Despite ongoing negotiations, whether these efforts will translate into concrete action remains uncertain.
Unrealistic Expectations
Despite Macron’s diplomatic overtures and public warmth with Trump, the U.S. maintains that Europe—not the U.S.—should guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security.
The Paris summit aims to solidify European security commitments should Russia’s full-scale invasion end without direct U.S. involvement. This could include deploying a "reassurance force" to Ukraine to deter further Russian aggression.
However, Missiroli warned that such a deployment could severely deplete European defenses: "If Europeans had to deploy a serious reassurance force, they would need all their best forces, leaving them undefended at home."
While Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer have committed to sending troops if a firm ceasefire is established, the feasibility of such a mission remains questionable. Most European militaries are structured to operate within NATO, relying on American logistical and intelligence support.
"Without an American backstop, transitioning these capabilities outside NATO would be extremely difficult," Missiroli added.
Additionally, troop numbers in France, the U.K., and Germany have declined, making a large-scale deployment challenging. General Sir Richard Shirreff, former deputy supreme allied commander Europe, highlighted the logistical hurdles: "Deploying 10,000 British soldiers would require 30,000 in the pipeline. This is not a short-term mission; it’s a long-term commitment."
Europe also faces the challenge of reducing reliance on American weaponry, which could take years.
"While Europe has the necessary technological capabilities, the primary issue is funding and production. Some capability gaps, like space-based assets, could take up to a decade to fill without U.S. support," said Olivier Schmitt, head of research at the Institute for Military Operations at the Royal Danish Defense College.
Considering Nuclear Options
Macron has urged European leaders to explore how France’s nuclear arsenal could deter Russian aggression. He also announced plans to modernize France’s largest airbase to accommodate nuclear weapons.
Germany and Poland have expressed interest in discussions regarding France’s nuclear umbrella amid concerns that American nuclear guarantees to Europe may wane.
"Even with combined British and French nuclear capacity, deterrence may not be sufficient," Estonia’s former President, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, cautioned. "Positioning these weapons in Poland could enhance their deterrent effect."
The U.K. and France collectively possess 515 nuclear warheads, with only France capable of deploying them by sea and air. In contrast, the U.S. has 1,750 warheads, while Russia maintains 1,570, both deployable by land, sea, or air.
Strengthening the EU’s Defense Framework
Macron has also sought to accelerate the European Union’s traditionally slow-moving institutions to enhance defense capabilities.
"France has swiftly encouraged EU institutions to create incentives for member states to invest in defense," Missiroli noted. "Recent initiatives from Ursula von der Leyen and the Commission align with this goal."
These initiatives include a 150-billion-euro ($161 billion) fund for collective defense investment and relaxed EU debt rules to facilitate military production.
Although France is unlikely to use these mechanisms due to its debt concerns, at least 20 EU countries are expected to participate, European officials confirmed.
One major challenge for France and other European nations is securing funding for defense expansion. With Macron ruling out tax increases, tough fiscal decisions loom for his already fragile government.
"Difficult choices must be made by a weak French government that relies on opposition tolerance to shift resources toward defense," Missiroli said.
To fulfill promises to Ukraine, strengthen European security, and revolutionize defense before France’s 2027 presidential election, Macron must find both financial resources and the political will to act.
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