Russia’s war against Ukraine is not just about Ukraine’s freedom and survival—it is about the future of Europe’s security. Russia seeks to dismantle the cooperative, democratic security order in Europe, replacing it with a system where power dictates sovereignty and Russia dominates large portions of the continent. This poses an existential threat to the European Union and its member states.
The EU’s decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine is a strategic move to reinforce European security and counter Russia’s ambitions. By defending Ukraine’s right to integrate with Europe, the EU also secures military capabilities and strategic resources. However, while Ukraine may contribute to the EU’s security in the long term, it is primarily Europe’s responsibility to ensure Ukraine’s security now.
Ukraine remains committed to NATO membership, a goal enshrined in its constitution and supported by a clear majority of its citizens. However, there is no consensus within NATO on extending an invitation at this time. This could change rapidly, and European countries rightly argue that Ukrainian NATO membership would be the most effective and cost-efficient way to ensure security in the North Atlantic region.
Given the current uncertainty around NATO accession, the EU must develop alternative security guarantees to protect its investment in Ukraine’s future. The prospect of a ceasefire agreement—especially under a U.S. administration seeking to negotiate one—underscores the urgency of providing Ukraine with credible security assurances to prevent renewed Russian aggression, as seen after the Minsk agreements.
EU member states, along with the U.K. and Norway, may have to consider deploying troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Therefore, strengthening the EU’s military capabilities is not a distant concern but an immediate necessity. To secure eastern enlargement and prepare for potential military challenges, the EU must assert itself as a geopolitical power, both independently and in collaboration with NATO.
Achieving this requires bold steps and institutional reforms. The EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) currently operates on a consensus basis, often slowing down decision-making. Shifting to qualified majority voting (QMV) would enhance efficiency and could be implemented without amending EU treaties. Additionally, Ukraine and Moldova could be integrated into CFSP decision-making forums and EU security initiatives like the European Defence Agency (EDA) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).
The EU must also commit to significant security and defense investments. Defense spending should exceed 3% of GDP, with substantial resources allocated to military aid for Ukraine and investments in Ukraine’s defense industry. The European Council has endorsed plans to increase national defense spending, provide defense loans, and adjust European Investment Bank (EIB) policies to support the defense sector. Further financial measures, such as issuing EU defense bonds, could help bridge capability gaps and enhance Europe’s defense infrastructure.
To secure public backing for these measures, European leaders must improve strategic communication. Citizens need to understand why enlargement strengthens security, why security investments are essential, and what military challenges the EU may face. Clear messaging on how candidate countries contribute to EU security and economic prosperity will be key to sustaining political support.
Enhanced EU-NATO cooperation is also critical. A new partnership agreement could align EU financial and regulatory tools with NATO capability requirements. This would improve intelligence sharing, military logistics, and interoperability, including stricter adherence to NATO standardization agreements for equipment and ammunition. Joint planning for military mobility corridors and multinational logistics would further bolster security coordination.
Additionally, Europe must prepare for potential military operations in Ukraine. Establishing a joint military command with supporting staff structures for planning deployments, reinforcements, logistics, and intelligence is necessary. Ideally, existing NATO formations such as the Multinational Corps Northeast would take on these roles.
The idea of European-led military operations, independent of U.S. involvement, has surfaced before but was historically resisted by Washington due to concerns over NATO cohesion. However, if U.S. policy on European security is shifting, now may be the right time to establish European military cells within NATO. This approach would allow Europe to take primary responsibility for Ukraine’s security while maintaining critical U.S. logistical and intelligence support within NATO.
For the EU to fulfill its ambition of becoming a geopolitical actor, it must act decisively. Strengthening European defense, enhancing cooperation with NATO, and committing to Ukraine’s security will not only secure the EU’s eastern frontier but also reaffirm Europe’s strategic autonomy in an evolving global landscape.
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