Russian attacks are now increasingly led by the wounded, as the dictator seeks to minimize the cost of care. As the war in Ukraine enters its final phase, the battlefield is shrouded in a haze of claims and counterclaims about progress, with numerous outrageous Russian demands complicating the situation. The growing possibility of a ceasefire, potentially around Easter, seems more likely by the day. With this deadline approaching, both sides are scrambling to capture as much territory as possible to strengthen their position when negotiations begin. Ukraine, under pressure from President Trump, finds its bargaining chips dwindling.
Recently, Ukrainian forces have launched further incursions into Russia, particularly in the Belgorod region. Though smaller in scale than the major incursion into Kursk last year, this operation is making notable headway. Military analysts are still working to determine its purpose. The force behind the operation is relatively small—about the size of a battle group—yet equipped with US-supplied Bradley armored fighting vehicles, which provide them with increased mobility.
The goal seems to be to seize high ground and threaten several villages, forcing Russia to redirect troops from other areas to contain the advance. One possibility is that this operation is a tactical move to tie up Russian forces elsewhere, while another is that it’s a reconnaissance mission designed to identify weak points for a larger force to exploit later.
This approach seems to echo the old Soviet doctrine, which both Russian and Ukrainian forces still rely on—much to the frustration of Western military trainers. Another theory is that the operation is simply an effort to secure as much territory as possible before the ceasefire takes effect. Like a game of musical chairs, the conflict may be nearing its final moments, and when the music stops, the territory you hold is yours.
Ukrainian soldiers, who recently visited the UK for a lecture tour, shared their observations of the Russian side’s increasingly desperate measures. In particular, they noted that Russian forces are now relying on human wave attacks, often led by the wounded. Soldiers with injuries—some on crutches—are sent forward to draw Ukrainian fire before the main force is sent in for reckless charges.
These signs suggest that both sides understand the end is near. Ukraine is using the valuable Western-supplied equipment to gain ground and leverage, while Putin is willing to sacrifice the wounded as part of a final push before entering what are likely to be difficult negotiations. For Putin, the cost of ammunition is high, but the cost of the dead is virtually nothing.
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