If proven to be an act of Kremlin sabotage, the attack would present a serious challenge to the security framework of the Western world. As counter-terror investigators comb through the wreckage of the North Hyde electrical substation, one overriding hope will dominate discussions inside Downing Street: that there is no link to Russia.
It is already difficult enough to explain how a single fire at a single station managed to ground 1,351 flights and shut down the world’s busiest airport for 24 hours. But if investigators uncover evidence of sabotage—especially one that traces back to Moscow—it would raise profound questions about the resilience of Western security.
Now, imagine Sir Keir Starmer in such a scenario (whether or not Russia is responsible in this case, such a situation could arise in the future). His first challenge would be proving to the world that Vladimir Putin’s regime orchestrated the attack. Before the Ukraine war, this might have been more straightforward. When Russia attempted to assassinate Sergei Skripal in Salisbury, it used GRU agents armed with a Soviet-era nerve agent. Investigative journalists from Bellingcat were able to expose the operatives with unassailable evidence, including their military ID numbers and passport photos.
Since then, however, the West has expelled so many Russian spies that Putin increasingly relies on criminal networks to carry out sabotage operations across Europe. Some of these actors are foreign intelligence agents—such as Bulgarian operatives reported by The Telegraph in late 2024.
Others are British nationals, like Dylan Earl, the 20-year-old who admitted to torching a Ukrainian-owned business in West London. If the Kremlin were behind an attack on Western infrastructure, it would likely layer the operation with intermediaries to obscure its origins. Hybrid warfare thrives in ambiguity—Putin understands that accountability is easiest to avoid when the evidence remains inconclusive.
For now, the Metropolitan Police have stated that they are “not treating this incident as suspicious, although inquiries do remain ongoing.”
But what if, in time, an undeniable link to the Russian state is found? NATO has long considered hybrid attacks a potential trigger for Article 5, which obligates all members to defend the targeted nation. In 2021, NATO reaffirmed that an attack on critical infrastructure could qualify as an act of war. If proof emerged that Russia was behind the Heathrow disruption—which affected 300,000 passengers—the inevitable question would arise: should NATO invoke Article 5?
Regardless of the answer, the outcome could serve Moscow’s interests. The UK cannot trigger Article 5 alone; it would require unanimous support from all NATO members. Would Donald Trump’s America, Hungary, or even Italy be willing to risk war with Russia over a fire at a British power station that caused no casualties? The notion seems implausible.
Conversely, if Sir Keir were to avoid pushing for an Article 5 response—whether by withholding evidence or declining to lobby for action—he would reinforce the perception that NATO lacks the resolve to respond forcefully to critical infrastructure attacks. In either case, Putin would be emboldened, knowing that future strikes could go unanswered.
Earlier this year, the Centre for European Policy Analysis, a Brussels-based think tank, called for NATO to clarify its response options for hybrid attacks. Triggering Article 5 does not have to mean military action—there are other ways to impose costs on Moscow. Burning down a power station, for instance, could justify imposing sanctions on countries importing vast amounts of Russian oil, such as India. It could also prompt the seizure of Russia’s $200 billion in frozen assets held in Europe.
Whether or not Moscow played a role in the Heathrow incident, Western leaders must act now to strengthen deterrence against such threats. Waiting until the next attack could be too late.
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