Donald Trump made a statement yesterday that has sent the media into a frenzy. In no uncertain terms, he suggested that Ukraine may not survive. What he's doing here is detaching himself from the conflict, which is actually a smart move. Ultimately, this situation started under Joe Biden, and Trump has the option to step back and say, "This isn't my doing; it's Biden's. I'm going to try to mediate, but I won’t take sides or make promises about how this ends."
The United States has played a major role, but it's time to stop being actively involved in the conflict. You can’t mediate while still being a player, and that's the point Trump is making. Whether or not the U.S. provides aid, nothing is guaranteed.
Trump is also acknowledging that the world is shifting to a multi-polar order. The U.S. is no longer the only global powerhouse—there are other significant players, like China and Russia. There’s no longer just one government: there’s the U.S. government elected by its people and the many governments in Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, for example, sees the European Union as the governing body for all of Europe, but this mindset is part of the problem.
She believes the U.S. and the EU share the same interests, but the truth is their interests diverge significantly. That’s why tensions between the U.S. and the EU are rising. Despite this, von der Leyen continues to repeat her usual rhetoric that “we are stronger together,” but it’s clear the U.S. has shown in recent months, especially with Trump in the picture, that it’s uninterested in engaging with the EU as a whole. The U.S. has dealt with individual countries, but not this imagined unified governing body.
For example, von der Leyen has said that Europe's goal is to ensure Ukraine is in a position to keep fighting until a “just and lasting peace” is reached. She claims the U.S. is an ally in this, but what she’s really saying is that Europe should shoulder the responsibility of keeping Ukraine in the fight.
But how can peace come without negotiations? When EU leaders talk about peace, what they really mean is defeating Russia and ensuring Ukraine wins. If you replace “peace” with “victory for Ukraine” or “defeat for Russia,” their statements would make a lot more sense.
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