Occam's razor, a well-known logical principle attributed to 14th-century English philosopher and theologian William of Ockham, suggests that when faced with multiple explanations for a phenomenon, the simplest one is usually correct—unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.
While not infallible, Occam’s razor is a useful tool for making sense of the world. However, in an era of widespread institutional distrust, this principle is often disregarded. Trust in key institutions—ranging from organized religion and the military to the media, Wall Street, public health authorities, Congress, and even the Supreme Court—has declined significantly in recent decades, as reflected in public opinion polls.
This erosion of trust is, in many cases, self-inflicted. The Catholic Church’s sexual abuse scandal, which emerged over two decades ago, severely damaged faith in institutional religion. The mainstream media has largely abandoned objectivity, positioning itself as a partisan force rather than a neutral observer. Wall Street’s actions leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, followed by government bailouts, deepened public cynicism.
The mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic—ranging from contradictory messaging on lockdowns and vaccine efficacy to confusion over the virus’s origins—further eroded confidence in public health authorities. Meanwhile, Congress appears paralyzed by partisanship, and the Supreme Court’s leadership has often prioritized institutional image over public trust.
We live in a populist age, where frustration with these institutions is not only understandable but, in some cases, justified. Government and media failures, corporate greed, and political dysfunction have fueled widespread skepticism. The American ruling class, as described by the late scholar Angelo Codevilla, frequently prioritizes its own interests over the greater good.
However, there is a real danger in allowing distrust to morph into unfounded conspiratorial thinking. When institutions fail, people may seek complex or irrational explanations rather than accepting the more straightforward truth. In some cases, Occam’s razor is flipped on its head—suddenly, the simplest explanation must be false simply because it aligns with what the so-called establishment wants us to believe. This paves the way for elaborate, often baseless theories that masquerade as critical inquiry.
A prime example of this played out recently in the "Signalgate" scandal. Earlier this month, Jeffrey Goldberg, the left-leaning editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, was mistakenly added to a high-level Signal group chat involving top Trump administration officials—including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz. The group was discussing U.S. military operations against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Incredibly, none of the officials realized Goldberg was present in the chat.
This glaring mistake has led to widespread speculation. Chief among the questions: How did Goldberg—who played a key role in shaping the media narrative around President Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal—end up in this highly sensitive discussion?
Many have called for Waltz’s resignation, as he was responsible for organizing the chat. Waltz, a decorated military veteran and staunch opponent of the Iranian regime, has drawn criticism from both the Left and factions of the Right, including those aligned with Tucker Carlson. Some have suggested that Waltz deliberately leaked information to Goldberg or acted as a source for The Atlantic—claims that lack substantive evidence.
Instead, the simplest and most plausible explanation, consistent with Occam’s razor, is that someone in Waltz’s office made a careless error—perhaps mistakenly adding a contact labeled “JG” without verifying the recipient. Applying Hanlon’s razor, another logical principle, we should not attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence. The responsible party should be held accountable, and stronger protocols must be established to prevent such reckless mishaps. But that should be the extent of the controversy.
American institutions have given the public plenty of reasons to be skeptical, and in some cases, even resentful. But unchecked distrust can lead to irrational conclusions and harmful misinformation. It is crucial to remain discerning—challenging authority when necessary, but also recognizing when the simplest explanation is, in fact, the right one. Sometimes, a mistake is just a mistake. Instead of spiraling into convoluted theories, it may be best to take a step back, breathe, and remember the fundamental wisdom of Occam’s razor.
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