Vladimir Putin's maneuvering with Donald Trump has now begun. The Russian leader aims to extend the negotiation phase before any ceasefire or resolution to the conflict. While Putin publicly agrees to discussions, his true intentions remain elsewhere, notes Crimean political scientist Nedim Useinov in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.
On Thursday, Putin addressed the U.S.-Ukrainian agreements regarding a potential truce in Ukraine. He assured his audience that he supports the truce but emphasized Moscow's concerns about securing a "lasting peace." According to Putin, such peace is only possible by addressing the "root causes of the crisis," though he did not specify what those causes are. He also suggested that a 30-day truce could serve as an opportunity for Ukraine to regroup and receive additional Western arms. Consequently, Russia plans to base further negotiations on the evolving battlefield situation.
Following Putin's remarks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded forcefully. "Putin is, of course, afraid to tell President Trump directly that he wants to continue this war and kill Ukrainians," Zelensky stated. He believes Putin is deliberately stalling, making meaningful decisions impossible. This viewpoint is widely shared in Ukraine.
Putin's Diplomatic Game Putin signaled agreement with Trump in public but did so tactically, says Useinov, an expert at The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). He suggests Putin avoided rejecting Trump outright to prevent harming his pride.
The American president capitalized on this, presenting Putin’s response in the media as a sign of progress. "It appeared that all sides were satisfied," says the expert.
Unacceptable Terms for Kyiv
The key issue, according to Useinov, is that Putin has made clear his intention to continue military operations.
"Putin boasted about Russian successes on the front, including pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region, which has allowed Moscow to concentrate resources on Donbas. He then placed the burden on Ukraine by setting conditions Kyiv cannot accept. Now, he waits for Trump's next move," says Useinov.
Putin’s Strategy: Exploiting Trump
According to the political scientist, Putin's approach may persist until Russia attempts to fully seize Donbas and secure the border.
"After that, he may shift focus to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Russia also claims as its own. A weakened Ukraine would then be forced to accept peace on Putin’s terms. This is his mindset. Whether he will succeed is uncertain, but a swift ceasefire is highly unlikely," Useinov explains. He adds that much now depends on Trump's actions.
"If Trump follows through on his rhetoric, he will soon recognize Putin's strategy and, as a result, implement stricter sanctions while expediting new arms deliveries to Ukraine," Useinov predicts.
"Trump is a Temporary Factor for Putin"
The political scientist warns against repeating the scenario of Trump's first presidency, particularly his negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
"Trump initiated talks with Kim about North Korea’s nuclear program, made symbolic gestures, claimed a short-term victory, and declared a breakthrough. However, in the long run, little changed. In authoritarian regimes like North Korea or Russia, leaders often remain in power for life, whereas U.S. presidents serve limited terms," Useinov points out.
"For Putin, Trump is merely a temporary factor—a tool to advance Russia's interests. Today, Trump is in power; in four years, he may not be. Meanwhile, Putin will still be there," he concludes.
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