Trump's policies spark fears of new European nuclear arms race

 The Shifting Landscape of Nuclear Deterrence

The policies of Donald Trump’s administration, coupled with uncertainty surrounding U.S. security commitments to its allies—particularly in Europe—have reignited discussions about independent nuclear deterrence. Experts warn that this shift in U.S. strategy could lead to a surge in nuclear-armed nations, potentially increasing the number of nuclear-capable states to between 15 and 25.

A British newspaper notes that Trump's overtures toward Moscow and his dismissive stance on NATO have forced longstanding allies—from Berlin and Warsaw to Seoul and Tokyo—to consider previously unthinkable scenarios: how to prepare for the possible withdrawal of the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

Europe’s Response

Even now, European leaders, particularly in France and the United Kingdom, are exploring the possibility of extending a collective nuclear shield over the continent. However, analysts suggest that some nations may instead choose to develop their own nuclear capabilities.

The Financial Times highlights the legal framework governing nuclear weapons, primarily the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Under this treaty, only five countries—the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, and Russia—are officially recognized as nuclear-weapon states, as they had developed their arsenals before January 1, 1967. The NPT, signed in 1968 and enacted in 1970, was designed to curb nuclear proliferation, but several nations outside the treaty—India, Israel, and Pakistan—have since acquired nuclear weapons. North Korea became the first nation to formally withdraw from the agreement in 2003.

Amid escalating global tensions, more countries may follow North Korea’s path, potentially undermining the NPT’s role as the cornerstone of nuclear non-proliferation. The Financial Times warns that this could bring about the very scenario U.S. President John F. Kennedy foresaw in the 1960s: a world with 15 to 25 nuclear-armed states, significantly heightening the risk of nuclear conflict.

Which Countries Could Develop Nuclear Weapons?

Building nuclear weapons requires extensive resources, including access to fissile materials—highly enriched uranium (HEU, at least 90%) or plutonium-239 (Pu-239). Nations also need advanced nuclear infrastructure, such as reactors for plutonium production or uranium enrichment facilities, as well as delivery systems like ballistic missiles and aircraft. Without a highly skilled workforce of nuclear scientists and engineers, such efforts are unlikely to succeed.

Currently, experts believe that roughly a dozen nations possess the technological capability to develop nuclear weapons. The most advanced in this regard are Japan, Germany, and Iran.

• Japan has significant reserves of plutonium from its civilian nuclear program and highly sophisticated technology. Some experts suggest Tokyo could build nuclear weapons within months if it chose to.
• Germany has a well-developed nuclear industry and access to highly enriched uranium for civilian purposes.
• Iran continues an advanced uranium enrichment program, though it officially denies any intent to develop nuclear weapons.
• South Korea, despite its advanced nuclear technology, remains politically constrained by its alliance with the United States.
• Turkey is also developing its nuclear capabilities, raising concerns about its long-term intentions.

As global security dynamics continue to evolve, the future of nuclear non-proliferation remains uncertain. If more nations seek to develop nuclear weapons, the risk of global instability could increase dramatically.