On March 6, during an impromptu news conference in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump was asked whether he was considering changes to U.S. policy on NATO. His response was characteristically blunt: if NATO members wanted America's protection, they needed to contribute more to their own defense. "Well, I've said that to them," Trump remarked. "I said, 'If you're not going to pay, we're not going to defend you.'"
Trump has expressed similar views before, offering little reassurance to European allies who have grown increasingly anxious. Over the past two weeks, tensions have risen: U.S. officials met with Russian diplomats for the first time in years, Trump publicly clashed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and his administration temporarily suspended military and intelligence support to Kyiv. A pressing question now looms over Europe: Is the U.S. still committed to the continent’s security?
Regardless of opinions on Trump’s rhetoric, its impact is undeniable. European leaders, fearing a potential U.S. withdrawal, are now seriously debating how to take greater responsibility for their own security. With a president who could unilaterally decide that Europe no longer warrants America’s investment, the continent is considering policies that would have seemed improbable just months ago.
Historically, even minor policy shifts in Europe require months of deliberation. Yet recent developments have been striking. European nations are shedding long-standing assumptions and stepping up as independent security players. For decades, national defense was a secondary concern, thanks to a stable security environment and the U.S. defense umbrella. Now, it has become a central issue. European leaders are not just discussing reforms—they are actively pursuing policies that could increase defense funding, even at the expense of higher deficits.
Ahead of last week’s European Union (EU) summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen introduced a proposal called "Rearm Europe." This initiative would provide EU nations with up to €150 billion in loans to strengthen their defense industries and acquire new military assets. Additionally, the EU executive body is exploring changes to deficit rules to allow increased military spending without financial penalties. According to von der Leyen, a collective 1.5% GDP increase in defense spending across the EU could generate an additional €650 billion. The European Council has agreed to review the proposal further.
Germany, Europe's economic leader, is following suit. Friedrich Merz, the incoming chancellor, has negotiated a deal with the Social Democrats—his expected coalition partners—to amend the country’s constitutional debt cap. The proposed change, which would exempt defense spending beyond 1% of GDP from debt restrictions, aims to modernize the Bundeswehr. Merz, a strong proponent of transatlantic relations, has emphasized his commitment to reducing Germany's dependence on the U.S. "My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can truly achieve independence from the USA," he stated following his election victory.
For French President Emmanuel Macron, this shift aligns with his long-standing vision. Since taking office in 2017, Macron has advocated for European strategic autonomy, arguing that the continent should reduce its reliance on the U.S. While his stance has met resistance from nations like Poland and the Baltic states—who fear jeopardizing ties with Washington—Germany’s evolving position brings renewed momentum to Macron’s vision.
The durability of these changes remains uncertain. Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of international relations at the City College of New York, takes a cautious perspective. "Europe's climb to autonomy in defense will be long and steep, not so much for economic and technological reasons—they have considerable strengths in both areas—but because mustering the unity, within and among countries, to mobilize those resources to strengthen their armed forces will prove difficult," he told Newsweek.
In short, Europe is at the beginning of a complex and uncertain path. Whether this transformation continues or fades once Trump leaves office remains to be seen.
Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.
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