Analysts speculate that Russia may demand the lifting of sanctions or the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kursk as conditions for agreeing to a ceasefire. However, Moscow has yet to respond to the 30-day ceasefire proposal brokered by the United States and Ukraine during talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday.
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who attended the Jeddah discussions, stated during a press conference: "I will speak with my Russian counterpart in the coming days." Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, dressed in military fatigues, visited Kursk for the first time since Ukraine's incursion last year, praising Russian war efforts.
Despite the ceasefire proposal, experts believe Russia is unlikely to accept the deal without securing its own demands.
The Ceasefire Proposal: Terms Agreed by the US and Ukraine
Following the Jeddah talks, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a joint statement outlining the terms of the proposed ceasefire.
The statement confirmed an "immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire" and announced that, as a result, the US has resumed military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. It also highlighted the importance of humanitarian measures during the ceasefire, including the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
However, the proposal does not address key issues such as lifting sanctions on Russia, security guarantees for Ukraine, or the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Russia's Kursk region. Instead, Ukraine has expressed a desire for European partners to be involved in the peace process, with countries like the United Kingdom and France currently discussing potential security guarantees for Ukraine.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin stated it would review the proposal before making an official assessment. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russia would not rush its decision, according to Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari.
During a meeting at the White House with Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Trump said: "Our people are going to Russia right now as we speak. Hopefully, we can get a ceasefire from Russia." While he acknowledged receiving "positive messages" regarding the ceasefire, he cautioned that "a positive message means nothing."
Reports indicate that Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will soon travel to Russia to engage with Putin on the proposal. Trump has previously declined to offer US security guarantees to Ukraine, leaving that responsibility to European allies.
Russia’s Potential Response to the Ceasefire Proposal
Experts suggest that Russia is unlikely to accept the ceasefire agreement in its current form.
"Rejecting the deal would be unwise politically and diplomatically, but accepting it as it stands is not an option for Russia," said Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the defense studies department at King’s College London.
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, noted: "It would be out of character for Russia to agree to the current terms without presenting additional demands."
Mikhail Alexseev, a political science professor at San Diego State University, added: "Moscow might accept some form of ceasefire, but the Kremlin is unlikely to abandon its broader strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine. If Russia were genuinely interested in a lasting peace, it would agree to the ceasefire and begin negotiating a withdrawal from at least some occupied territories."
Russia’s Likely Demands for a Ceasefire
Lifting of Sanctions and Security Guarantees
Giles believes Russia will push for "permanent restrictions on security guarantees for Ukraine" and the lifting of economic sanctions as part of any ceasefire agreement.
Since the war began in 2022, the US and its allies have imposed over 21,000 sanctions on Russia, targeting individuals, media organizations, military sectors, and key industries such as energy, aviation, shipbuilding, and telecommunications. Alexseev warns that lifting sanctions would allow Russia to "rebuild, regroup, and resume the war when conditions are more favorable."
Withdrawal of Ukrainian Troops from Kursk
Another likely Russian demand is the removal of Ukrainian troops from Kursk, Miron said. Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into the Russian region on August 6, 2024, capturing territory inside Russia. However, Ukraine has since lost ground, and the Russian military has reported significant gains.
During his visit to Kursk, Russian military chief Valery Gerasimov informed Putin that Russian forces had reclaimed 1,100 square kilometers (425 square miles) of territory.
Miron suggested that Russia might delay accepting the ceasefire in order to secure further territorial gains, reducing Ukraine’s leverage in negotiations.
US Support for Russian Demands
Giles speculated that Russia's demands could receive some level of backing from the US.
"If past behavior is any indication, the US may support some of Russia’s demands," he said. "Ukraine is not in a position to dictate terms. The US has essentially taken control of the process, leaving Ukraine as an object rather than a subject in these negotiations."
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