Russia is amassing 30,000 troops in the Donbas region in preparation for a major offensive, even as it continues to delay peace talks.

 

As Moscow’s negotiators continue to drag out peace talks and introduce new demands for Ukraine, Russian military commanders are quietly preparing a massive, combat-ready force for a decisive spring offensive—timed to strike before any US-imposed ceasefire or economic sanctions can take effect. Today, significant developments are emerging from the Lyman direction in Donetsk Oblast.

While Russia publicly maintains a diplomatic front, signaling interest in peace, behind the scenes they are rapidly building up military strength in the rear areas. This force is expected to be unleashed before the end of the month. Frustrated by Moscow’s delays and stalling tactics, former President Trump has now threatened to severely cripple Russia’s war economy with the harshest sanctions yet proposed.

The immediate Russian objective in the region is to capture the towns of Lyman and Borova. Securing these would push Ukrainian forces back toward the Oskil and Siversky Donets rivers, eliminating the critical bridgeheads Ukraine established during the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive.

To support this strategy, Russia has deployed over 30,000 troops to the Borova sector alone. Unlike the often poorly equipped conscripts and penal units used elsewhere, these soldiers are seasoned contract troops receiving specialized training for upcoming combat operations. Their presence reflects Russia’s serious intent and could tip the balance, giving Moscow a 3-to-1 manpower advantage over Ukraine’s Third Army Corps in the area.

Over the past three months, Russian forces have gained small but strategic footholds across the Zherebets River, including the capture of Novoliubimovka and positions near Nove. The current goal is to connect these fragmented bridgeheads, which are now too narrow to support large-scale mechanized assaults. A successful link-up would allow Russia to deploy armored reserves and heavy equipment, transforming the bridgehead into a viable launch point for a full-scale offensive.

With these reinforcements in place, Russia aims to push toward the Oskil River, severing Ukraine’s ground lines of communication between Lyman and Borova. Such a move would isolate Ukrainian defenders in Borova, leaving them dependent on a single bridge for logistics. After cutting off Borova, Russian forces could pivot south toward Lyman, opening a new axis of attack into the Donbas.

This maneuver would complement a parallel offensive from the south toward Kostyantinivka, indicating that Russia’s broader aim is the total capture of Donetsk Oblast through a sustained military campaign extending into 2025 and 2026.

All of this unfolds as the Kremlin continues to undermine peace negotiations—consistently adding new conditions even after agreements are signed. These include absurd demands like Ukraine abandoning its NATO aspirations, surrendering five provinces to Russian annexation, and fully demilitarizing the country.

Russia’s diplomatic overtures serve as a smokescreen, concealing preparations for a major offensive. Yet the pressure is mounting. The deployment of over 30,000 troops to the Lyman-Borova front appears to be a last-ditch effort to seize territory before Russia is forced to accept a ceasefire.

Trump, increasingly impatient with Moscow’s delay tactics, has threatened to impose a 50% secondary tariff on countries buying Russian oil. The US Senate is even considering stronger measures—with growing bipartisan support for up to 500% secondary sanctions on nations trading in Russian energy. These moves could devastate the Russian economy, and serve as a powerful deterrent to those still partnering with Moscow.

In short, Russia is leveraging a large, battle-ready reserve of trained soldiers for what may be the largest offensive in the Lyman-Borova sector since the start of the war. Given recent troop movements and escalating preparations, it is highly likely that this offensive will begin before the end of April. But with Washington beginning to see through the Kremlin’s diplomatic charade, Moscow’s military ambitions may soon collide with crippling economic consequences.