Russian Drone Strikes Surge Amid US-Led Peace Talks
Since US-led peace talks began in mid-February, Russian drone attacks against Ukraine have surged by more than 50%, rising from an average of 101 to 154 daily strikes, according to analysis by The Telegraph. The escalation has strained Ukraine’s air defense systems, which are struggling to keep pace.
The sharp increase in attacks undermines Moscow’s claims of seeking peace. Instead, analysts say the Kremlin is taking advantage of the diplomatic uncertainty to press its military campaign and pressure Kyiv into concessions.
“Russia is trying to increase the pain it inflicts on Ukraine to make it more likely that Kyiv will make painful concessions,” said Daniel Byman, director at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
The first US-Russian talks on the conflict—excluding Ukraine—took place on February 18 in Riyadh. Following that meeting, former President Donald Trump declared, “I think I have the power to end this war.” In the weeks since, Russia has demanded the permanent annexation of several Ukrainian territories.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Moscow of using the talks to bolster its battlefield position: “They want to improve their situation on the battlefield.” Trump recently expressed frustration with Putin, saying he was “very angry” after negotiations stalled.
Drone strike data shows clear spikes tied to diplomatic friction between Washington and Kyiv. On February 28, the day Trump publicly criticized Zelenskyy, Russian forces launched 208 drones. On March 7, following the US decision to suspend intelligence sharing, drone attacks jumped to 252.
“It’s clear that the Russians were trying to exploit the pause in intelligence sharing,” said Karolina Hird, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russia has also upgraded its tactics, deploying more long-range drones capable of breaching Ukrainian defenses.
“The Russian strike packages are getting bigger and more effective,” Hird noted, adding that this strategy “contradicts Russia’s claims that it’s ready for peace.”
Ukraine Adjusts to Intensifying Assaults
Facing more aggressive Russian attacks, Ukraine has been forced to adapt. According to Hird, the country’s drone interception rate has dropped from over 60% last summer to below 50% today, as its forces conserve limited air defense resources.
At the same time, Ukraine has increased its own drone strikes by 16.7%, shifting focus toward Russian economic infrastructure.
“Over half of January’s strikes targeted oil, gas, and energy infrastructure,” said Olha Polishchuk of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
On the eve of renewed US-Russia talks—between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov—Russia launched 176 drones, hitting civilian targets in Dolynska (Kirovohrad Oblast) and Odesa.
Analysts warn that Russia is benefiting from the murky ceasefire terms and diplomatic confusion.
“The diplomatic advantage for Russia here is the injection of confusion,” Hird explained. “Russia can claim it wants peace while portraying Ukraine as the obstacle—but the data tells a very different story.”
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