Experts have issued a stark warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin—whose death was recently speculated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—could launch an attack on NATO territory within just six months. This follows earlier estimates by German Army General Carsten Breuer, who suggested such an assault could happen within four years, and comes amid revelations from a leaked Pentagon memo indicating a shift in Europe's defense posture.
On The New Statesman podcast, host Andy Marr and The Times' Berlin bureau chief, Oliver Moody, discussed the threat. Moody cited Danish intelligence, saying: “Their latest estimate suggests it could be as little as six months.”
He reflected on Germany's response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, noting that just days after the attack, Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a historic turning point—Zeitenwende—committing to a €100 billion rearmament plan and pledging to meet NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending goal. “To his credit, Scholz has followed through,” said Moody. “Germany's military readiness and morale have improved significantly, though they’re still not where they need to be.”
Moody also referenced likely incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ambitious €500 billion infrastructure plan, aimed at improving military mobility across Europe. However, internal debates persist, particularly over the reintroduction of conscription.
Highlighting Russia’s broader strategy, Moody described it as “industrial-grade sub-military warfare,” involving tactics like assassination plots—such as one targeting the CEO of Rheinmetall, Germany’s top defense contractor—frequent drone incursions into military bases, widespread railway sabotage, social media disinformation, and political subversion, including bribery of European politicians.
The motive behind these actions remains debated. Some analysts argue Putin aims to destabilize Europe and hinder coordinated decision-making, while others believe it could be preparation for a broader military campaign.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking to CBS News, urged U.S. and European leaders to increase defense spending and industrial production. He noted that despite NATO's collective economy being 20 times larger than Russia’s, it produces just a quarter of the ammunition.
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasized that a strong, Western-backed Ukrainian military remains essential for European security and peace. The ISW also pushed back against Russia’s demands for Ukraine’s "demilitarisation," stating that such conditions undermine efforts—especially those of U.S. President Donald Trump—to achieve lasting peace in the region.
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